In 1950 the Turing Test was created as a method for determining the intelligence of a machine. A few short years later the term artificial intelligence was coined by John McCarthy, a professor at Dartmouth. So, some of our smartest minds have been working on AI for over 70 years. However, as everyone can see by scrolling through their social feeds and watching Bigfoot vlog, we’ve made significant advancements in recent weeks. Despite that, I believe we are still in the first of what will ultimately be three phases of AI. Here’s how I define those three phases, my estimate on the timeline, and how that will impact radio.

Phase 1 (Now through 2030): While it’s true that artificial intelligence is improving much faster than we anticipated, it’s still only replaced a small fraction of the workforce at this point. But, obviously some industries have been harder than others. Radio in particular hasn’t seen massive AI-related layoffs with on-air talent being replaced by AI voices because the handful of stations using it are mostly filling dayparts that were unmanned. Of course, many groups have already cut back their on-air talent so deeply at the local level that there’s not much left to cut anyway. We are, however, already seeing groups gravitate toward hiring and promoting radio people who are willing to fully embrace AI. So, even though we are still in phase one we can already see how learning and incorporating AI tools into our workflow gives us a competitive advantage over employees who refuse to use AI entirely.

Phase 2 (2030-2040): According to the Future of Jobs Report published by the World Economic Forum, employers “anticipate a structural labor market churn of 23 percent of jobs in the next five years.” One McKinsey study paints an even darker picture, concluding that 15 to 30% of the worlds workforce will lose their job to AI by 2030. That’s roughly 400 million to 800 million people. If that prediction comes true it’s hard to quantify the impact that would have on the global economy, but it’s massive and very widespread. That’s why the term UBI, universal basic income, has moved from the fringes into the mainstream recently. During this phase AI, coupled with the downsizing that’s already taken place leads me to believe that it’s unlikely anyone that does not use AI will be working in radio full-time by 2030. That’s because those who have mastered it will be able to single-handedly do the work of 50+ employees and crank out any kind of content they can think of at a volume that no single person can compete with regardless of budget or talent. 

Phase 3 (2040 and beyond): It's hard to say exactly what will be happening by 2040 because it depends on who wins the AI race and how willing countries are to put effective regulations in place. It is safe to say that AI will be doing all the jobs humans don't want to do. Unfortunately, it will also be doing many of the jobs we want. By this point because of the debt they currently carry that forced them to cut too deep at the local level, I believe that massive radio groups will no longer exist. Instead, broadcast media, including radio, will be segmented into a bunch of smaller media groups and thousands of individuals. This isn’t far-fetched. We saw a massive rise in the influence and power of individual media during the last presidential election. The only way that trend will reverse is if the major media organizations blow up their existing business models and completely restructure how they do business. The window to do so is closing rapidly and unlikely to happen given the debt most of them carry and how AI tools are empowering individuals to create their own professional looking and sounding content.

At some point in this timeline, probably by phase 2 but certainly by phase 3, there will be an AI backlash leading to a huge market for real content created by actual people. But, only a handful of those people will make the bulk of the money doing it. 

What do you think about my predictions and timeline? Comment below or email me at Andy@RadioStationConsultant.com.

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